Inflow and outflow by age and country of origin

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There has been a huge increase in the number of settlers and departures between the period 1998-2000 and the period 2017-2022. Roughly a doubling of both settlement and departure. Which part of the new residents stays for a short time and which part stays longer? Do newcomers have a chance in the urban selection process to stay in the city? Or do they need/want to leave the city quickly? In other words: will Amsterdam become a city of comings and goings, a place of passage? Or is it still possible for newcomers to take root, develop and contribute to the city?

 

The city will function more like a Sorting Machine as a greater number of people enter and leave the city. The greater the influx, the greater the selection process can be. As the size of settlement and departure is high compared to the size of the population, the city will become more like a transit house. As this character increases, the functioning of the city as a Sorting Machine will become more apparent. The selection process (who can stay and who cannot) will take on stricter forms.

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By age

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It is striking that the largest group of establishments is in the 20-29 age category. In addition, a significant influx can be seen in the 30-39 age group; approximately 1/3 compared to the 20-29 category. The 20-29 group mainly includes students who come to study in Amsterdam, recent graduates from the Netherlands and the rest of the world, who hold the better-paid jobs in Amsterdam, but also young migrant workers. The category of 30-39 year old settlers includes groups with motives such as household formation, expats and other labor migrants.

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Among the departures from Amsterdam, we see in the period 1998-2000 that the group of 20-29 year olds is approximately the same size as the group of departures between 30 and 39. In the period 2017-2022, the 20-29 category is considerably larger than the 20-29 category. 30-39. This shows that, unlike in the past, today young people are the largest group leaving the city. The possibility (and/or desirability) for young people to stay longer in Amsterdam appears to have decreased significantly. The group of departures in the 30-39 age category has also increased considerably between 2017 and 2022 compared to 1998-2000. This includes the group that has traditionally left the city since the 1960s: families that were formed in Amsterdam and left the city with one or two children. This is clearly visible in the graph above, where in addition to the departure of the 30-39 group, there is also a large departure from the 0 to 9 years category. From this we conclude that a large proportion of 30-39 year olds who leave Amsterdam consist of families with one or more children. The average age of women having their first child in Amsterdam is 32 years (Elbrechts, Sleutjes & Smits, 2023). This allows us to link the departure of 0-9 year olds to the 30-39 age group and therefore not to the 20-29 age group. That is why we call the category 30-39 year olds the family group. We define a family as a household with one or more children.

 

In the dissertation of Hester Booi, senior researcher at Research and Statistics of the Municipality of Amsterdam, in May 2024, the outflow of families in the last sixty years is analyzed in depth. Booi concludes that the outflow of families is still extensive, but that in recent times upper middle income groups also seem to be forced to leave the city if they form a family, even if they want to continue living in the city.

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If we define families not only as the group of 30-39 year olds but also as the group of 0-9 year olds, a different picture emerges of the departure of families compared to the departure of people in their twenties. In 2023 we will see that 7,672 young children (0-9 years) left Amsterdam; If we add this to the departure of those in their thirties (23,105, see below), the total of this departing 'family group' is 30,777. This is slightly more than the number of departing people in their twenties (30,064). So it seems that more families than people in their twenties are leaving the city. But some of the departing people in their thirties will not be a family, while some of the people in their twenties will also be leaving as a family. Further research is needed to get a clear picture of this. The fact remains that more people in their twenties than in their thirties are leaving the city.​​

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As can be seen in the graph below, a turning point occurred around the year 2008. There was a decline in the departure of the 30-39 age category and the 18-29 category continued to rise. From 2014 onwards, the departure of 30-39 year olds also increased again, but now the departure of 18-29 year olds remains higher.

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The growth in the number of inhabitants of the city is mainly due to the settlement surplus (more settlement than departure) in the age category 20-29 years. It is striking that a settlement surplus can also be seen in the group of 10 to 19 year olds. These are the high school students and the young college students. All other age groups have a surplus of departures, i.e. more departures than settlements. The city is growing because of young people, but they are also a group that is leaving the city en masse. Note: the settlement surplus is much larger than the birth surplus, together they ensure population growth.

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To get a clearer picture, a subdivision has been made below into the age groups 20-25, 25-30, 30-35 and 35-39 with their departure figures in the years 2019 to 2023. In addition, this is further narrowed down in a subdivision from 20-29 and 30-39.

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Conclusion from the departure by age

Since 2008, significantly more people in their twenties have left the city than people in their thirties. Young people find it increasingly difficult to stay in the city and nowadays often leave Amsterdam before they can start forming a family. This is a bitter confirmation of the statement that Amsterdam is increasingly functioning like a Sorting Machine, whereby young people can settle in the city, however difficult, but then have to leave it quickly.

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By country of origin

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Inflow

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The graph above shows the development of the 12 largest groups of settlers in Amsterdam from abroad in the year 2023.

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Great Britain

This shows that the largest group of settlers from abroad between 2014 and 2021 came from Great Britain. This includes not only people with British nationality, but also people with another nationality who move from Great Britain to Amsterdam. After the Brexit referendum in 2016, we saw a strong increase in settlers from Great Britain, including expats who previously worked in the financial center of London or at international companies and institutions. The graph below shows that within the settlers from Great Britain, the groups 18-24, 25-29 and 30-39 year olds are approximately the same size. In addition to expats and knowledge migrants, a large number of students will probably also settle there. As of 2020, the Brexit regulations have been implemented and the number of settlers has significantly decreased.

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India and the United States

It is striking that the two largest groups of settlers from abroad in 2023 will come from outside the European Union; India and the United States. Despite the fact that they need a special residence permit, the influx is large. The graph below shows that the influx from India of 18-24 year olds is relatively small, which leads to the conclusion that few students come from India. The settlers from India mainly consist of the age category 30-39, although before 2019 this group was almost the same as the category 25-29 year olds. Because they need a special residence permit, we assume that this group mainly consists of knowledge migrants and expats. Other research shows that they mainly work in ICT and FinTech or at the top of multinational companies. From the US, the group of 18-24 year olds is the largest, and these will probably mainly be students. The group of settlers from the US between the ages of 25 and 39 is also large; this includes the better paid migrant workers, researchers, expats and CEOs.

 

China

Special residence permits also apply to China, which limits the influx. The graph below shows that from China, just like from the US, the group of 18-24 year olds has the largest influx compared to the other age categories. Here too, it will mainly concern students.

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Russia

As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there has been a large influx of Ukrainian migrants. However, a significant increase in migration from Russia can also be seen. These will partly be Russian war refugees/asylum seekers, but it appears that large numbers of Russian ICT and FinTech employees are also receiving a residence permit on the basis of their contribution to the Dutch Tech industry. For example, around 500 Russian employees of the new tech company Nebius Group were recently able to settle in Amsterdam (Soetenhorst, 2024).

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EU

The influx from EU countries is not subject to special permits. Establishment from Southern European countries, Spain and Italy, mainly consists of the age category 18-24. This is also the case in the neighboring countries France and Germany, which most likely means that students mainly come to Amsterdam from those countries.

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Departure

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The graph above shows the 12 (foreign) countries to which most people move from Amsterdam. The division by number of people differs from the location graph; This graph is more zoomed in because the numbers are lower than the location figures.

 

India

It is striking that the country from which most people settle in Amsterdam, India, is not even in the top 12 of the countries to which people depart from Amsterdam. This can be explained by the already observed departure from Amsterdam by Indians to the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area (MRA) and the rest of the Netherlands. Particularly to Amstelveen, Uithoorn and recently to Hoofddorp and Almere. See our research report 'Domestic departure from Amsterdam by foreigners'.

 

United States

In the years 2014-2018 and the years 2021-present, there has been significant growth in the outflow to the US from Amsterdam. The influx from the US constitutes one of the largest groups of settlers in Amsterdam, so you could cautiously conclude that the Americans who settle in Amsterdam also largely return to the US. The figures for settlement and departure to the US show approximately the same pattern; more or less an increase until 2020; a significant decrease in the corona years 2020 and 2021, and a significant increase since then. The balance of settlement and departure in 2023 shows a settlement surplus of approximately 700 people. That is approximately 5% of the total foreign migration balance/settlement surplus. The outflow is mainly in the age categories 18-24 and 30-39, and especially 18-24 (as shown in the graph 'Departure from Amsterdam to abroad by destination and by age category, 2014-2023'). At the same time, these are also the ages that arrive the most, which can mean that they stay in Amsterdam for a very short time.

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​Great Britain
Departure to Great Britain over the past 10 years has been fairly stable,

but has shown a decline after 2019. Establishment from this country has

declined sharply after 2019, but there is still a slight settlement surplus;

and so the number of British people in Amsterdam is growing.

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China
In 2023, approximately 1,000 more people will move from China than will leave for that country.

The settlement surplus mainly consists of the age group 18-24 (600 people), 25-29 years

(200 people) and 30-39 years (100 people). We cautiously conclude that the majority of Chinese

settlers and leavers are students.
2023 will have the largest settlement surplus with China in the past 10 years; in the period

2014-2020 it was significantly lower, about half. If this surplus in 2023 is compared with the surplus

of other countries this year, China is not a notable gainer; many countries show this same pattern.​

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EU

A large number of people who leave abroad leave for an EU country. There is a clear settlement surplus of EU citizens in Amsterdam in 2023, around 4,000. The growth in the number of EU citizens varies considerably per EU country.

 

Ukraine
In addition, it can be seen that some of them moved back during the war in Ukraine.

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​Sources:

O&S Amsterdam

Elbrecht, A., Sleutjes, B., & Smits, A. (2023, 1 december). Minste geboortes sinds 1997. Website Onderzoek en Statistiek. https://onderzoek.amsterdam.nl/artikelen/minste-geboortes-sinds-1997

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Soetenhorst, B. (2024, 18 juli). Yandex gaat vanuit Amsterdam verder als Nebius Group. Het Parool.
 

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August 23, 2024